Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian officials are reportedly concerned about the
possibility of significant Russian territorial gains in Summer 2024 in
the event of continued delays in Western security assistance. - Russian President Vladimir Putin used his February 29
address to the Federal Assembly to attempt to convince the Russian
public that his next term as president will be defined by Russian
military success in Ukraine but not at the expense of stagnating or
decreased social and economic welfare. - Putin used tired rhetoric about negotiations and nuclear
saber rattling during his Federal Assembly speech, likely to seize on
Western attention to the speech to promote ongoing Kremlin information
operations. - Putin emphasized the Kremlin’s domestic focus on 2024 as the
“Year of the Family” to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis
during his Federal Assembly address. - Putin did not respond to the February 28 request from the
Congress of Deputies from pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region
Transnistria, but this lack of response still affords the Kremlin
several possible courses of action (COA) at a later time. - Ukrainian forces downed three more Su-34 fighter aircraft in eastern Ukraine on February 28 and 29.
- The Kremlin continues to assert its self-arrogated right to
enforce Russian federal law on citizens of NATO member and former Soviet
states over actions taken within the territory of their own countries. - Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that
Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a threat
to Armenian security as Russian officials refused to acknowledge
Armenia’s reduced participation in the CSTO. - The Kremlin has reportedly established high-level positions
in all federal bodies to promote patriotism and history within each
body, likely aimed at strengthening informational and ideological
control over federal employees. - Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the frontline on February 29.
- Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec Head Sergei
Chemezov stated on February 29 that Rostec plans to produce A-50
long-range radar detection aircraft on an unspecified schedule because
Russian forces require more A-50 aircraft. - Occupation officials continue to support Kremlin efforts to gain further control over religious groups in occupied Ukraine.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-29-2024
