Key Takeaways:
- A Ukrainian military observer offered assessments of
Russian force generation and defense industrial base (DIB) capacities
that are consistent with ISW’s previous assessments. - Russia’s increased defense industrial base (DIB) production
is likely not sustainable in the medium and long-term as it will likely
suffer from labor shortages, decreased weapons and equipment stockpiles,
and an inability to completely compensate for military and dual-use
items it can no longer acquire due to sanctions. - Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea have apparently resumed after a pause since mid-February 2024.
- A Ukrainian military source noted that Russian forces are
increasingly using grenades equipped with chemical substances in the
Zaporizhia direction, in potential violation of the Chemical Weapons
Convention (CWC) to which Russia is a signatory. - The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has summoned
Russian Ambassador to Moldova Oleg Vasnetsov in response to claims that
Russia will operate polling stations in pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway
region Transnistria during the Russian presidential election. - Russia, China, and Iran will hold the joint Maritime
Security Belt – 2024 naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman between March
11–15. - The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that
the West intends to use Armenia as a tool against Russia, a notable
escalation in its information operations criticizing Armenian efforts to
distance itself from security relations with Russia. - Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill on March 11
that allows Russian authorities to further restrict actors it deems
“foreign agents” to consolidate control over the Russian information
space ahead of the presidential election. - France is reportedly prepared to build a coalition of
countries that are open to potentially sending Western military
personnel to Ukraine. - Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues efforts to cater
to Russian servicemembers and their families with the promise of various
social benefits.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2024