Russian Operations Assessment 26FEB2024

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Written by admin

February 27, 2024

Key Takeaways: 
• Sweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees on February 26 that
officially re-establish the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts,
codifying major Russian military restructuring and reform efforts. 

The formal transfer of regions previously under the responsibility of
the Northern Fleet is likely part of a wider Russian effort to
re-establish military district commands as the primary headquarters for
the Russian ground forces while reassigning naval assets to the Russian
Navy, as ISW previously reported. 

The re-creation of the MMD and LMD supports the parallel objectives of
consolidating control over Russian operations in Ukraine in the
short-to-medium term and preparing for a potential future large-scale
conventional war against NATO in the long term. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 25 that
Russia is preparing a new offensive that will start in late May or
summer 2024, consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have
regained the theater-wide initiative and will be able to pursue
offensive operations when and where they choose as long as they hold the
initiative. 

Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov is
continuing a recent campaign to engage with Russian military personnel
following the Russian capture of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast and reportedly
visited a command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in
Ukraine. 

Over 20 heads of state, including 15 European Union (EU) leaders met in
Paris on February 26 to discuss ramping up ammunition supplies to
Ukraine. 
• Germany announced a new military aid package to Ukraine on February 26. 

Transnistrian sources reportedly told Russian independent outlet
Verstka that Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, is
not planning to ask to join Russia during the Congress of Deputies in
Tiraspol on February 28.
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